Sector Pulse – Nifty Metal Index

Price Action Overview:

The Nifty Metal Index extended its bullish momentum into September 2025, closing the latest week at 9,989.90 with a gain of +1.08%. For the month, the index surged over 9% (835 points), trading at its 2025 high and just 3% below its all-time high. September has been exceptionally strong, with three consecutive green weekly closes and only two negative sessions out of 15.

The index has decisively broken above the 9,600 resistance zone and is now testing the 10,000 psychological mark, underscoring strong buyer conviction. While 2025 recorded only three positive months out of eight until August, the negative months were healthy corrective phases that did not disrupt the broader uptrend. Notably, April’s red candle was contained within March’s body, and both July and August declines remained within June’s range, highlighting a structurally strong trend.

Overall, price action shows shallow pullbacks with consistent support near key moving averages, reflecting resilient sector strength and sustained accumulation.

Moving Averages (20-Day EMA, 50-Day EMA and 200-Day EMA):

The 20-day EMA (9,715.11) is rising sharply and closely tracking the price action, acting as immediate trend support. Throughout September 2025, the index has consistently closed above the 20 day EMA from the second trading day of the month onward.

The 50-day EMA (9,528.18) is also trending firmly higher, further strengthening the medium-term bullish structure. Since the breakout above the 50-day EMA on 12th May 2025, the index has shown remarkable resilience, dipping below the 50-day EMA on only 14 out of 93 trading sessions. This highlights how effectively the moving average has acted as a reliable support zone, with price consistently respecting it and reaffirming the strength of the ongoing uptrend.

The 200-day EMA (9,167.19) remains well below current levels, confirming the long-term uptrend. Since breaking above the 200-day EMA on 12th May 2025, the index has steadily closed higher and the price has never closed below the EMA, underscoring its strength as a reliable long-term support.

Weekly RSI-14 (Relative Strength Index):

The weekly RSI (14) at 63.22 indicates strong bullish momentum while staying below overbought levels. Since breaking above the 50 midline mark in the second week of May 2025, it has remained consistently above it, confirming sustained buying interest and supporting the ongoing uptrend.

Trend Analysis:

The Nifty Metal Index in 2025 has maintained a resilient uptrend despite intermittent volatility. The year started with choppy, range-bound movements until February, and a sharp dip in April, triggered by the U.S. tariff shock, briefly tested sentiment but set the stage for a strong rally.

From May onward, the index broke out decisively, forming higher highs and higher lows. The rally gained momentum through June, absorbing minor consolidations along the way. July & August saw shallow pullbacks and sideways consolidation, reflecting steady accumulation.

A fresh breakout in September has pushed the index to new yearly highs, rising nearly 20% from May lows near 8,200 to around 10,000. Overall, corrections have acted as healthy pauses, with strong buying on dips confirming that the bullish trend remains intact.

Industry Analysis:

India’s metals sector is set for strong growth, driven by rising domestic demand, supportive policies, and global competitiveness. Steel demand is expected to grow ~10% with infrastructure expansion, targeting 300 MTPA capacity by FY31, while aluminium and zinc demand rises with construction, automotive, and EV growth. Government initiatives like the PLI Scheme 1.1 are attracting USD 3.55 billion in investments, creating 25 MT additional capacity and 17,000 jobs by FY27–28. Regulatory reforms in mining and cost advantages in steel and alumina further strengthen the sector. India ranks among the top global producers of steel, aluminium, lime, and iron ore, underpinning a positive outlook for the Nifty Metal Index.

Top Stock Picks from the Metal Space to focus:

• Jindal Stainless Ltd
• Hindustan Copper Ltd

Conclusion:

The Nifty Metal Index remains in a strong bullish trend, supported by rising EMAs and a healthy weekly RSI of 63.22, indicating room for further upside. Trading well above its key moving averages, the index may see minor consolidation or shallow pullbacks, but the broader uptrend remains intact after a 20% rally from May lows.

Key support levels to watch are the 9,600 / 9,715 / 9,528. On the upside, sustaining above the 10,000 psychological mark could pave the way toward fresh all-time highs, while a decisive break below 9,600 may signal a short-term corrective phase.

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