Nifty CPSE Index has been constructed to facilitate the Government of India’s disinvestment initiative through the ETF route and comprises select 10 Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs), each with more than 51% Government of India ownership.
It is different from the Nifty PSE Index, which has a broader public-sector universe (including PSU banks and financials), while Nifty CPSE is a more concentrated, disinvestment-focused index of select CPSEs only.
Price Action Overview:
The current weekly candle has decisively moved above both the 50-day EMA (6,358.68) and 200-day EMA (6,362.91) and crossed the previous month’s high, confirming strengthening bullish momentum. The Weekly RSI (14) has reclaimed the 50 level and is trending higher, indicating a bullish shift with ample upside room.
A key but relatively unnoticed bullish development is the failed breakdown near the 6,100 demand zone. In December, the index briefly slipped into this zone but quickly reversed higher, reclaiming both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which signals strong absorption of supply and aggressive dip-buying rather than distribution. Another constructive signal is the price compression around the EMAs prior to the recent breakout, a classic volatility contraction pattern that often precedes a strong directional move. The Weekly RSI turning up from the 50 zone, without entering oversold territory, further supports trend continuation. Together, these factors suggest a shift from range-bound action to EMA-led trend resumption, improving the probability of a sustained breakout above 6,650 and a move toward lifetime highs.
Trend Analysis:
The Nifty CPSE Index witnessed sharp weakness during January–February 2025, followed by a strong recovery from March to June, rising nearly 23% and indicating aggressive accumulation. From July to December 2025, the index moved into a 500-point rectangle consolidation, oscillating between a well-defined demand zone near 6,100 and a supply zone around 6,650. This phase reflected consolidation after a strong rally. In the last two weeks, the index has surged over 6%, reclaiming the upper end of the range, signalling renewed bullish momentum. A sustained breakout above the supply zone could pave the way for a move toward lifetime highs.
Industry Analysis – (Power & Oil&Gas):
Power and Oil&Gas together account for nearly 76% weightage in the Nifty CPSE Index, making their outlook critical for index performance.
Power Sector:
India is the world’s third-largest electricity producer with 476 GW installed capacity and demand growing at 6–6.5% CAGR. Power consumption rose 33% from FY21 to FY25, while peak demand is projected at 458 GW by 2032. The sector offers ₹40 lakh crore investment potential, led by renewables, transmission (₹9.15 lakh crore), storage (₹4.79 lakh crore), and 80 GW thermal additions for base-load stability.
Oil & Gas Sector:
India’s oil demand is set to double to 11 million barrels per day by 2045, with gas consumption rising 60% by 2030. Refining capacity is expanding toward 667 MTPA by 2040, supported by ₹2.18 lakh crore exploration and production investments, 100% FDI and rising fuel demand.
Leading Picks in the CPSE Space:
- NTPC Ltd – (Index weightage – 20.18%).
- Coal India Ltd – (Index weightage – 13.85%).
- CPSE ETF – Nippon India ETF.
Conclusion:
The Nifty CPSE Index is strengthening, with price holding above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs and the Weekly RSI above 50, signalling a bullish trend. As long as the index sustains above 6,100, the structure remains positive, while a decisive breakout above 6,650 could lead the index toward lifetime highs.
Key supports: 6,350 / 6,100 / 6,000.
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