{"id":33623,"date":"2025-12-18T11:05:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T05:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=33623"},"modified":"2025-12-19T12:36:27","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T07:06:27","slug":"gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623","title":{"rendered":"Gold Is Glittering &#8211; What Should You Do Now?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner-1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33636\" width=\"907\" height=\"454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner-1536x768.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner-2048x1024.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 907px) 100vw, 907px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold has witnessed a sharp rally over the last 6 years (2019-2025), gaining ~23% annually and multiplying 4x!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-2019-25-returns.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-2019-25-returns.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33624\" width=\"882\" height=\"330\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-2019-25-returns.jpg 882w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-2019-25-returns-300x113.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-2019-25-returns-768x288.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 882px) 100vw, 882px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In just the last one year, gold has gained ~67% (as of Nov-25).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-recent-returns.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-recent-returns.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33626\" width=\"867\" height=\"482\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-recent-returns.jpg 740w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-recent-returns-300x167.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 867px) 100vw, 867px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong>But here\u2019s the catch!<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite Gold\u2019s recent stellar performance, history reminds us that gold is a <strong>cyclical asset. <\/strong>Periods of rapid gains were often followed by long, flat stretches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-long-term-returns.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-long-term-returns.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33627\" width=\"868\" height=\"390\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-long-term-returns.jpg 787w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-long-term-returns-300x135.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-long-term-returns-768x346.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 868px) 100vw, 868px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Trying to guess what gold will do next based on recent performance is tempting. But it&#8217;s also unhelpful.<br><br>A more useful question is:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><em>Where are we in the cycle?<\/em><\/li><li>And more importantly: <em>What should a sensible investor do about it?<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The goal is not to get the timing perfect. It never is. The goal is to stay thoughtful, balanced, and anchored to first principles. We have previously outlined our view on gold (on Aug-25) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/gold-is-shining-bright-but-for-how-long\/32580\">here<\/a>. In this blog, we have refined and updated our framework to reflect the current market environment and reassess where gold stands today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Introducing our \u201cGolden C-I-R-C-L-E\u201d Framework\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>We break this down using 6 key factors to evaluate Gold at any point in time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li><strong>C- Central Banks Demand<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>I &#8211; Inflation (US CPI)<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>R &#8211; Real Yields (US)<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>C &#8211; Cost of Mining<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>L &#8211; Liquidity (US M2 Money Supply)<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>E &#8211; Equity Comparison<\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3><span class=\"has-inline-color has-black-color\"><strong>1.<\/strong> &nbsp; <strong>C- Central Banks Demand<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Central banks hold a major chunk of the world\u2019s gold, giving them a strong influence on gold prices. Even small changes in their buying or selling can move gold prices sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Developed market central banks hold ~75-80% of their reserves in gold<\/li><li>Emerging markets central banks hold just 5-15%.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-reserves.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-reserves.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33628\" width=\"867\" height=\"460\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-reserves.jpg 844w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-reserves-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 867px) 100vw, 867px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But the tide is turning!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Emerging economies <\/strong>are <strong>steadily increasing <\/strong>their <strong>gold reserves <\/strong>to diversify and reduce reliance on the US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For eg &#8211; From <strong>2010-2021, <\/strong>Central banks bought <strong>~473 tonnes <\/strong>of gold <strong>annually <\/strong>(~10-11% of global gold demand).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since <strong>2022<\/strong>,<strong> <\/strong>this annual demand has doubled<strong> <\/strong>to <strong>1,000+ tonnes <\/strong>(~23% of global gold demand), led by <strong>freezing <\/strong>of <strong>Russia\u2019s currency reserves<\/strong> by the <strong>Western nations <\/strong>-&gt; a wake-up call for countries to shift towards gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Central-banks-demand.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Central-banks-demand.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33629\" width=\"875\" height=\"459\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Central-banks-demand.jpg 739w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Central-banks-demand-300x158.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 875px) 100vw, 875px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Given this backdrop, emerging market central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, from <strong>5-15% <\/strong>to around <strong>20% <\/strong>of <strong>total reserves<\/strong> in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, the central bank gold purchases have started to moderate. Quarterly buying has fallen below the ~250-tonne run rate required to sustain annual purchases of 1,000 tonnes. As of the third quarter of 2025, cumulative central bank buying stands at ~634 tonnes <strong>-> ~116 tonnes short <\/strong>of the pace needed to reach 750 tonnes by this point in the year. This is an <strong>important trend <\/strong>to <strong>monitor<\/strong>, as any <strong>further slowdown <\/strong>in central bank demand could <strong>weigh down <\/strong>the <strong>gold prices<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em><span style=\"color:#199266\" class=\"has-inline-color\">We believe the current central bank buying trend remains strong and structurally supportive for gold. However, any further moderation in the upcoming quarters will need close monitoring.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Verdict &#8211;<\/span> <span style=\"color:#199266\" class=\"has-inline-color\">POSITIVE <\/span><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">for Gold.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><span class=\"has-inline-color has-black-color\"><strong>2.<\/strong> &nbsp; <strong>I- Inflation<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We compare Gold to US CPI (Consumer Price Index) because CPI measures inflation, and gold is viewed as an inflation hedge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When inflation rises, the purchasing power of currency falls. Gold, being a real asset with limited supply, tends to hold value better than cash. So comparing gold price to CPI helps investors see whether gold is keeping up with inflation. The <strong>Gold-to-CPI ratio<\/strong> helps assess whether gold is cheap or expensive in \u201creal\u201d terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-CPI-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-CPI-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33703\" width=\"886\" height=\"436\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">The current <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>Gold to US CPI ratio <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">is at <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>an all time high <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">of <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>12.9x <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(vs previous peaks at 7.5x in 2020, 8.1x in 2011 &amp; 9.2x in 1980), indicating <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>gold <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">is <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>extremely overpriced<\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"> relative to <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>inflation.<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Verdict &#8211; <\/span><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">NEGATIVE<\/span><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\"> for Gold.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><span class=\"has-inline-color has-black-color\"><strong>3.<\/strong> &nbsp; <strong>R &#8211; US Real Yields<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, gold moves <strong>inversely <\/strong>with real yields:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Yields fall <\/strong>-&gt;<strong> gold rises<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Yields rise <\/strong>-&gt;<strong> gold falls<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is because global investors typically choose between US 10Y bonds and gold as safe-haven inflation hedge. Increasing bond yields make gold unattractive and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this relationship has broken down recently led by <strong>increased central bank demand offsetting weaker investor inflows<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold therefore remains <strong>strong despite high real yields <\/strong>(<strong>1.79% <\/strong>as on <strong>Nov-25<\/strong>).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">If not for the central bank buying, the current High US real yield still remains a headwind for gold prices.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-US-10Y-Real-Yields-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-US-10Y-Real-Yields-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33695\" width=\"907\" height=\"467\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-US-10Y-Real-Yields-1.jpg 746w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-US-10Y-Real-Yields-1-300x155.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 907px) 100vw, 907px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Verdict &#8211; <\/span><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">NEGATIVE<\/span><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\"> for Gold.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><span class=\"has-inline-color has-black-color\"><strong>4.<\/strong> &nbsp; <strong>C &#8211; Cost of Mining&nbsp;<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We use the All in sustaining costs (AISC) to assess Mining costs. AISC captures the full cost of producing an ounce of gold. It includes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Direct mining costs <\/strong>&#8211; labor, energy &amp; materials<\/li><li><strong>Administration<\/strong>, <strong>exploration<\/strong>, and <strong>environmental costs<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Sustaining capital <\/strong>&#8211; e.g., equipment upkeep and mine development.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Comparing <strong>gold price to AISC<\/strong> shows how much <strong>profit cushion <\/strong>miners have, and whether gold is <strong>overvalued or trading <\/strong>near its <strong>cost<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>High Gold Price to AISC Ratio -&gt; <\/strong>Strong miner margins <strong>-&gt;<\/strong> Gold may be <strong>overpriced<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Low Gold Price to AISC Ratio -&gt;<\/strong> Thin\/no margins <strong>-&gt;<\/strong> Gold may be <strong>undervalued<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">Currently, the <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>ratio <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">is at <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>2.7x<\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"> (Nov-25), <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>above the historical averages <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">of ~<\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>1.7x <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">, indicating <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>Gold <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">is <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>overvalued.<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-to-AISC-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-to-AISC-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33697\" width=\"924\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-to-AISC-1.jpg 710w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-to-AISC-1-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Verdict &#8211; <\/span><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">NEGATIVE<\/span><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\"> for Gold.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><span class=\"has-inline-color has-black-color\"><strong>5.<\/strong> &nbsp; <strong>L &#8211; Liquidity (US M2 Money Supply)<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>M2 <\/strong>is a <strong>broad measure <\/strong>of <strong>money supply<\/strong>. It includes currency in circulation, demand deposits, savings, time deposits, and money market funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Comparing gold to M2 helps assess whether gold is keeping pace with broader liquidity expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>High Gold<\/strong> to <strong>US M2 Ratio -&gt; <\/strong>Gold is <strong>expensive<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Low Gold <\/strong>to <strong>M2 Ratio -&gt; <\/strong>Gold is <strong>cheaper<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>Currently, the ratio <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">is <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>High at ~3.1x <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(vs previous peaks at 3.2x in 2011 &amp; 8x in 1980) <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>-&gt; Indicating gold <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">is <\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>unattractive <\/em><\/span><\/strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">vs Liquidity trends<\/span><\/em><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><em>.<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-M2-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-vs-M2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33699\" width=\"935\" height=\"504\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Verdict &#8211; <\/span><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">NEGATIVE<\/span><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\"> for Gold.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><span class=\"has-inline-color has-black-color\"><strong>6.<\/strong> &nbsp; <strong>E &#8211; Equity Comparison &#8211; Gold Price to Sensex ratio<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Gold to Sensex ratio<strong> <\/strong>helps assess investor\u2019s preference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>High Gold<\/strong> to <strong>Equity Ratio -&gt; <\/strong>Gold is <strong>unattractive <\/strong>vs Equities<\/li><li><strong>Low Gold <\/strong>to <strong>Equity Ratio -&gt;<\/strong> Gold is <strong>attractive <\/strong>vs Equities<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-Price-to-Sensex-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-Price-to-Sensex-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33701\" width=\"927\" height=\"470\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-Price-to-Sensex-1.jpg 730w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gold-Price-to-Sensex-1-300x152.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 927px) 100vw, 927px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">The current <\/span><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">Gold to Sensex ratio <\/span><\/strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">is at<\/span><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"> 1.4x<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">, indicating Gold is <\/span><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">expensive <\/span><\/strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">relative to Equities.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Verdict &#8211; <\/span><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">NEGATIVE<\/span><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\"> for Gold.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Putting it all together,&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0454a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Our Overall view on Gold as per Golden C\u2013I-R-C-L-E Framework &#8211; <\/span><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">NEGATIVE<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>At a Gold price at ~$4,100\/ounce &#8211; <strong>(<span style=\"color:#199266\" class=\"has-inline-color\">1 Positive factor <\/span>+ <span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">5 Negative factors<\/span>)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Summary.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Summary.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33635\" width=\"858\" height=\"615\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Summary.jpg 637w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Summary-300x216.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 858px) 100vw, 858px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Apart from the above 6 factors, gold prices are also influenced by Geopolitical and Economic uncertainties (War, Pandemic, Market crisis etc). These events are beyond our control and are hard to predict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-luminous-vivid-amber-color\">What should you do now?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Avoid incremental investments <\/strong>at the current juncture, since 5 out of 6 indicators have turned negative.<\/li><li>For <strong>existing allocation <\/strong>made over the last few years, <strong>maintain <\/strong>the <strong>long term asset allocation <\/strong>to gold.\u00a0 <strong>Cut <\/strong>the exposure if it has <strong>increased <\/strong>by <strong>5%<\/strong> from the <strong>target<\/strong>.<\/li><li><strong>Do not go underweight <\/strong>now, since <strong>momentum indicators <\/strong>are still <strong>strong<\/strong>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold has witnessed a sharp rally over the last 6 years (2019-2025), gaining ~23% annually and multiplying 4x! In just the last one year, gold has gained ~67% (as of Nov-25). But here\u2019s the catch! Despite Gold\u2019s recent stellar performance, history reminds us that gold is a cyclical asset. Periods of rapid gains were often [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":33636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,6,509,376],"tags":[26,1209,1207],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Gold Is Glittering - What Should You Do Now?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Is Glittering - What Should You Do Now?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gold has witnessed a sharp rally over the last 6 years (2019-2025), gaining ~23% annually and multiplying 4x! In just the last one year, gold has gained ~67% (as of Nov-25). But here\u2019s the catch! Despite Gold\u2019s recent stellar performance, history reminds us that gold is a cyclical asset. Periods of rapid gains were often [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Insights\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/fundsindia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-18T05:35:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-19T07:06:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2133\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1067\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ashika N\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Wealth India Financial Services\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/fundsindia\"],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/download.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/download.jpeg\",\"width\":189,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Wealth India Financial Services\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Insights\",\"description\":\"Official blog of FundsIndia.com\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg\",\"width\":2133,\"height\":1067},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623\",\"name\":\"Gold Is Glittering - What Should You Do Now?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-18T05:35:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-19T07:06:27+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Gold Is Glittering &#8211; What Should You Do Now?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#webpage\"},\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/08aeb2895d7aced49522a9e856708efc\"},\"headline\":\"Gold Is Glittering &#8211; What Should You Do Now?\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-18T05:35:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-19T07:06:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#webpage\"},\"wordCount\":1106,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Gold\",\"Gold investing\",\"gold rally\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Mutual Fund Research\",\"Mutual funds\",\"Research Desk\",\"Simply Important\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/08aeb2895d7aced49522a9e856708efc\",\"name\":\"Ashika N\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#personlogo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e8613e5f8935d2208037bdf85b2b8af8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e8613e5f8935d2208037bdf85b2b8af8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ashika N\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/author\/ashika\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Gold Is Glittering - What Should You Do Now?","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Gold Is Glittering - What Should You Do Now?","og_description":"Gold has witnessed a sharp rally over the last 6 years (2019-2025), gaining ~23% annually and multiplying 4x! In just the last one year, gold has gained ~67% (as of Nov-25). But here\u2019s the catch! Despite Gold\u2019s recent stellar performance, history reminds us that gold is a cyclical asset. Periods of rapid gains were often [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623","og_site_name":"Insights","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/fundsindia","article_published_time":"2025-12-18T05:35:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-12-19T07:06:27+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2133,"height":1067,"url":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ashika N","Est. reading time":"8 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"Wealth India Financial Services","url":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/fundsindia"],"logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#logo","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/download.jpeg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/download.jpeg","width":189,"height":200,"caption":"Wealth India Financial Services"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#logo"}},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/","name":"Insights","description":"Official blog of FundsIndia.com","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#primaryimage","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg","width":2133,"height":1067},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#webpage","url":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623","name":"Gold Is Glittering - What Should You Do Now?","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2025-12-18T05:35:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-12-19T07:06:27+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Gold Is Glittering &#8211; What Should You Do Now?"}]},{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#webpage"},"author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/08aeb2895d7aced49522a9e856708efc"},"headline":"Gold Is Glittering &#8211; What Should You Do Now?","datePublished":"2025-12-18T05:35:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-12-19T07:06:27+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#webpage"},"wordCount":1106,"commentCount":2,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg","keywords":["Gold","Gold investing","gold rally"],"articleSection":["Mutual Fund Research","Mutual funds","Research Desk","Simply Important"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/mutual-funds\/gold-is-glittering-what-should-you-do-now\/33623#respond"]}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/08aeb2895d7aced49522a9e856708efc","name":"Ashika N","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/#personlogo","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e8613e5f8935d2208037bdf85b2b8af8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e8613e5f8935d2208037bdf85b2b8af8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ashika N"},"url":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/author\/ashika"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RC-Banner.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33623"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33623"}],"version-history":[{"count":46,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33709,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33623\/revisions\/33709"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}