{"id":31486,"date":"2025-02-03T14:21:53","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T08:51:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=31486"},"modified":"2025-02-03T14:21:55","modified_gmt":"2025-02-03T08:51:55","slug":"india-budget-fy26-fiscal-prudence-friendly-taxation-flat-capex","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-basics\/investment-definitions\/india-budget-fy26-fiscal-prudence-friendly-taxation-flat-capex\/31486","title":{"rendered":"India Budget FY26: Fiscal Prudence, Friendly Taxation, Flat Capex"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Blog-Banner.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Blog-Banner-1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31487\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Blog-Banner-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Blog-Banner-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Blog-Banner-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Blog-Banner-1536x768.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Blog-Banner-2048x1024.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Key Highlights<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">1. Fiscal Consolidation on track<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Reduction in fiscal deficit target<\/strong> to <strong>4.4%<\/strong> <strong>of GDP <\/strong>for <strong>FY 26<\/strong> vs 4.5% that was earlier announced \u2013 in line with fiscal consolidation glide path to reduce fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP by FY26.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">2. Personal Income Tax (new regime) reduced to boost consumption<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">3. Capital Expenditure Growth has moderated<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>FY25 Capex revised down to <\/strong>Rs 10.2 lakh cr from Rs 11.1 lakh cr<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Capital Expenditure at Rs 11.2 lakh cr <\/strong>in<strong> FY26 (i.e 3.1% of GDP) remains flat<\/strong> &#8211; last year budget estimate (Rs 11.1 lakh cr in FY25)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">4. Govt has signalled upcoming regulatory reforms to improve ease of doing business, simplify taxation and streamline compliance<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">5. No Change in Capital Gains Taxation for Investors\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Budget in Visuals <\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br>Nominal GDP Projection <\/strong>for <strong>FY25 = INR 324 lakh crores <\/strong>(<strong>9.7% growth<\/strong> over INR 295 lakh crores in FY24)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Nominal GDP Projection<\/strong> for <strong>FY26<\/strong> = <strong>INR 357 lakh crores<\/strong> (<strong>10.1% growth<\/strong> over INR 324 lakh crores in FY25)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Where does the money come from?<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/1-1024x596.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31489\" width=\"768\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/1-1024x596.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/1-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/1-768x447.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/1.png 1046w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Where does the money get spent?\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31490\" width=\"701\" height=\"308\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2.png 935w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2-300x132.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2-768x338.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 701px) 100vw, 701px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">How much is the deficit between spending and earning?<\/span>\u00a0<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31491\" width=\"681\" height=\"87\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/3.png 908w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/3-300x38.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/3-768x98.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 681px) 100vw, 681px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">How is the deficit financed?\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31492\" width=\"677\" height=\"247\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/4.png 902w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/4-300x109.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/4-768x280.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 677px) 100vw, 677px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Fiscal Consolidation On Track..<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31493\" width=\"942\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/5.png 942w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/5-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/5-768x351.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 942px) 100vw, 942px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Tax Receipts as a % of GDP remains stable..<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"836\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6.png 836w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6-768x412.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 836px) 100vw, 836px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Personal Income Tax has reduced &#8211; No Tax for Income &lt;12 lakhs <\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br><\/strong>Enhanced rebate and revised income tax slabs eliminate tax on income up to INR 12L<strong>.<\/strong> Old income tax slabs remain unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"651\" height=\"252\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/7.png 651w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/7-300x116.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 651px) 100vw, 651px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Capex growth has moderated..<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/8.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31496\" width=\"846\" height=\"483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/8.png 846w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/8-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/8-768x438.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/9.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31497\" width=\"675\" height=\"326\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/9.png 900w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/9-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/9-768x370.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 675px) 100vw, 675px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31498\" width=\"953\" height=\"194\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10.png 953w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10-300x61.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10-768x156.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 953px) 100vw, 953px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">No dilution in quality of spending -> Subsidies at 5 year low<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/11.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"829\" height=\"408\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/11.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31499\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/11.png 829w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/11-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/11-768x378.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 829px) 100vw, 829px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">What\u2019s in it for you? <\/span><br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">1. How much will you save (new taxation regime) post the reduction in tax?<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/12.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31500\" width=\"600\" height=\"620\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">2. No Change in Capital Gains Taxation<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">3. What gets Cheap and Costly\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/13.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/13.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31501\" width=\"500\" height=\"170\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/13.png 500w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/13-300x102.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Other Important Announcements<\/span><\/strong><br><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Changes in TDS limits &#8211;<\/strong> <strong>Tax deduction limit<\/strong> on <strong>interest earned <\/strong>by <strong>senior citizens<\/strong> has been <strong>increased <\/strong>to <strong>Rs 1 Lakh<\/strong> (currently Rs 50,000) and non-senior citizens to Rs 50,000 (currently Rs 40,000). TDS threshold on rent has been increased to Rs 6 Lakh per annum from \u20b9 2.4 Lakh per annum. TDS threshold on Dividend income has also been increased.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong>Changes in TCS limits &#8211;<\/strong> TCS threshold for remittances made under the RBI&#8217;s Liberalized Remittance Scheme (LRS) is proposed to be increased from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 10 lakh. Secondly, the TCS on remittances for education purposes is expected to be removed when the remittance is out of a loan taken from specified financial institutions.<\/li><li><strong>Redemption proceeds from <\/strong>ULIPs with annual premium above 2.5 lakhs will be treated as long term capital gains and taxed at 12.5% if held for more than 12 months.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong>Tax exemption<\/strong> is now available for <strong>two self-occupied properties<\/strong> i.e. you can claim zero valuation for the second house property even if it is unoccupied\/not rented out (this was earlier taxed based on deemed income).\u00a0<\/li><li><strong>New Income Bill<\/strong> to be<strong> introduced next week <\/strong>&#8211; to streamline compliance and <strong>improve ease of doing business.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">FundsIndia Equity View: Shifting Gears -> Focus shifting to consumption revival as pace of capex slows down<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The budget delivered an unexpected boost to consumption by significantly lowering income tax\u2014exempting incomes up to \u20b912 lakh\u2014thereby increasing disposable income for consumers. In contrast, capital expenditure (capex) growth has been subdued compared to last year\u2019s budget estimates. The government appears to be shifting its focus, signaling that private sector capex will now be expected to drive investment momentum.<br><br><strong>This subtle pivot toward stimulating consumption over public capex stands out as the budget\u2019s key takeaway.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Overall, we maintain our POSITIVE outlook on Equities over a 5-7 year horizon, anticipating reasonable earnings growth in the coming years. We believe we are currently in the mid stage of a multi-year bull market.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Large caps look attractive given the recent correction due to sharp FII sell offs and reasonable valuations.<\/strong> Small cap Valuations continue to remain high and incremental investments can be avoided.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u2018quality\u2019 investment style, after nearly four years of underperformance since 2020, has shown early signs of a turnaround since mid-2024. With the government now prioritizing consumption-driven growth, this shift further strengthens the outlook for quality stocks. <strong>We remain positive on the quality style and continue to incorporate it within our Five Finger Strategy\u2014diversified across value, quality, growth at a reasonable price, mid &amp; small caps, and global\/momentum themes.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our Equity view is derived based on our<strong> 3 signal framework<\/strong> driven by<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Earnings Cycle&nbsp;<\/li><li>Valuation&nbsp;<\/li><li>Sentiment<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>As per our current evaluation we are at&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MID PHASE OF EARNINGS CYCLE + NEUTRAL VALUATIONS +&nbsp; MIXED SENTIMENTS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>MID PHASE OF EARNINGS CYCLE<br>We expect a reasonable earnings growth environment over the next 3-5 years.<\/strong> This expectation is led by Manufacturing Revival, Banks \u2013 Better asset quality &amp; pickup in loan growth, Revival in Real Estate, Early signs of Corporate Capex, Structural Demand for Tech services, Government\u2019s focus on Consumption boost, Structural Domestic Consumption Story, Consolidation of Market Share for Market Leaders, Strong Corporate Balance Sheets (led by Deleveraging) and Govt Reforms (Lower corporate tax, Labour Reforms, PLI) etc.<br><\/li><li><strong>NEUTRAL VALUATIONS<br>FundsIndia Valuemeter<\/strong> based on MCAP\/GDP, Price to Earnings Ratio, Price To Book ratio and Bond Yield to Earnings Yield has reduced from 72 last month to <strong>66 <\/strong>(as on 31-Jan-2025) &#8211; moved from Expensive zone to <strong>\u2018Neutral\u2019 Zone<br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>MIXED SENTIMENTS<br><\/strong>This is a <strong>contrarian indicator<\/strong> and we become positive when sentiments are pessimistic and vice versa <strong>\u00a0<br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">DII flows continue to be strong on a 12-month basis. DII Flows have a structural tailwind in the form of<\/span><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Savings moving from Physical to Financial assets<\/li><li>Emerging \u2018SIP\u2019 investment culture<\/li><li>EPFO Equity investments<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>FII Flows continue to remain weak.<\/strong><strong>&nbsp; <\/strong><strong>FII Flows<\/strong> have been muted for the last 3+ years -&gt; since Oct-21 at <strong>negative Rs. -62,000 Crs<\/strong> vs <strong>DII Flows<\/strong> at Rs. <strong>10.9 lakh Crs<\/strong>. This is also reflected in the <strong>FII ownership of NSE Listed Universe<\/strong> which is currently at its <strong>10 year low<\/strong> of <strong>17.6%<\/strong> (peak ownership at ~22.4%). This indicates <strong>significant scope for recovery in FII inflows.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Periods of weak FII flows have historically been followed by strong equity returns over the next 2-3 years (as FII flows eventually come back in the subsequent periods).<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>IPOs <\/strong>&#8211;<strong> Sentiments<\/strong> has slowly<strong> started <\/strong>to <strong>revive <\/strong>with most recent <strong>IPOs <\/strong>getting <strong>oversubscribed. But no signs of euphoria except for the SME segment.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Past 5Y Annual Return <\/strong>is at<strong> 15% <\/strong>(Sensex TRI) &#8211; <strong>lagging<\/strong> with <strong>underlying earnings growth at 17%<\/strong> and nowhere close to what investors experienced in the 2003-07 bull market (45% CAGR)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Overall the sentiments <\/strong>are<strong> mixed <\/strong>and<strong> <\/strong>we see<strong> no signs of \u2018Euphoria\u2019<\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">FI Fixed Income View: Fiscal Consolidation continues but market borrowing slightly above expectation -> Neutral for Debt Markets<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fiscal Consolidation on track..<\/strong><strong><br><\/strong>The Fiscal Deficit for FY26 at<strong> 4.4% of GDP<\/strong> adheres to the <strong>fiscal glide path. New Fiscal Consolidation roadmap<\/strong> to <strong>bring down debt<\/strong> to <strong>50% of GDP<\/strong> by Mar-2031 from an estimated 57.1% in FY25 and 56.1% by FY26.&nbsp; Bond Markets will like the deficit number and medium term investors will appreciate the debt \/ GDP framework.<br><br><strong>However market borrowing is marginally higher than expectation<\/strong><strong><br><\/strong>Net Market Borrowing in FY26 is at INR<strong> 11.5 lakh crores is slightly above market expectation <\/strong>(vs 11.1 lakh crores in FY25) but we do not see any significant impact on the bond yields.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, <strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">we expect yields to gradually come down over the next 12-18 months <\/span><\/strong>as inflation approaches target and as RBI starts rate cut cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why do we expect yields to come down? <\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Inflation under control: <\/strong>India\u2019s <strong>Dec-24 CPI inflation<\/strong> at <strong>5.2% <\/strong>is<strong> within the RBI\u2019s tolerance band(2-6%).&nbsp; Core CPI<\/strong> (excl Food &amp; Energy) <strong>remains low <\/strong>at<strong> 3.6%.&nbsp; RBI&#8217;s inflation estimates <\/strong>for <strong>FY25<\/strong> is at<strong> 4.8%.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Elevated Interest Rates well above expected inflation: Repo Rate<\/strong> at<strong> 6.50%<\/strong> is<strong> comfortably<\/strong> <strong>above <\/strong>the<strong> projected inflation (4.8% for FY25) &#8211; <\/strong>this leaves the<strong> real policy rates <\/strong>at an<strong> elevated\u00a0 170 bps <\/strong>giving <strong>enough room for RBI to reduce interest rates <\/strong>by ~50-75 bps over time. <strong><br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>FED has started the interest rate cut cycle:\u00a0 <\/strong>Rates have been <strong>cumulatively brought down by 100 bps<\/strong> led by concerns of <strong>global growth slowdown <\/strong>&amp; signs of <strong>lower<\/strong> <strong>US inflation. However, <\/strong>the Fed has maintained the interest rate on hold in the recent meeting (30-Jan-2024).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Favorable Demand-Supply Equation:&nbsp;<\/strong><ul><li><strong>Higher Demand -&gt;&nbsp; <\/strong>Higher FII inflows as<strong> Indian Government Bonds<\/strong> have been<strong> included <\/strong>in <strong>JP Morgan\u2019s global bond market index <\/strong>and in Bloomberg\u2019s Emerging Market Index + possibility of inclusion in FTSE indices.<br><\/li><li><strong>Comfortable Supply -&gt; <\/strong>Gross Market Borrowing in FY26 is comfortable at 14.8 lakh crores vs 14.1 lakh crores in FY25.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How to invest? <\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><strong>3-5 year bond yields (GSec\/AAA) continue to remain attractive.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We prefer debt funds with&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>High Credit Quality (&gt;80% AAA exposure)<\/li><li>Short Duration or Target Maturity Funds (3-5 years)<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Highlights 1. Fiscal Consolidation on track Reduction in fiscal deficit target to 4.4% of GDP for FY 26 vs 4.5% that was earlier announced \u2013 in line with fiscal consolidation glide path to reduce fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP by FY26. 2. Personal Income Tax (new regime) reduced to boost consumption 3. Capital [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":31487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,509,376],"tags":[555,90,891,243,108,718,517,354,587,289,148,518,521,803],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>India Budget FY26: Fiscal Prudence, Friendly Taxation, Flat Capex<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The budget FY26 focus remains on fiscal prudence and friendly taxation. 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