{"id":30145,"date":"2024-07-24T14:50:22","date_gmt":"2024-07-24T09:20:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=30145"},"modified":"2024-07-25T16:42:39","modified_gmt":"2024-07-25T11:12:39","slug":"india-budget-fy25-focus-on-3-cs-consolidation-capex-capital-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-basics\/investment-definitions\/india-budget-fy25-focus-on-3-cs-consolidation-capex-capital-gains\/30145","title":{"rendered":"India Budget FY25: Focus on 3 C\u2019s &#8211; Consolidation, Capex &#038; Capital Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Budget.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Budget-1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Budget-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Budget-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Budget-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Budget.jpg 1250w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Key Highlights<\/span><br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">1. \u2018Policy continuity\u2019 with no major populist announcement despite election result<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">2. Continued focus on fiscal consolidation&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Further reduction in fiscal deficit target<\/strong> to <strong>4.9%<\/strong> <strong>of GDP <\/strong>for FY 25 (vs 5.1% announced in interim budget) \u2013 maintaining fiscal consolidation glide path to reduce fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by FY26.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">3. Maintains earlier guidance on Capital Expenditure<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Capital Expenditure to increase by 17% <\/strong>to <strong>Rs 11.1 lakh cr <\/strong>in<strong> FY25 (i.e 3.4% of GDP) <\/strong>from Rs 9.5 lakh cr in FY24 (i.e 3.2% of GDP)<\/li><li>Major focus is on: <strong>Roads &amp; Bridges<\/strong>, <strong>Railways &amp;<\/strong> <strong>Defence&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">4. Change in Capital Gains Taxation<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">5. Nudge towards New Income Tax Regime with revisions in tax slab and standard deduction<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Budget in Visuals <\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br>Nominal GDP <\/strong>for <strong>FY 25 = INR 326 lakh crores <\/strong>(10.5% growth over INR 295 lakh crores in FY24)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Where does the money come from?&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"624\" height=\"365\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30148\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture1.png 624w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture1-300x175.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Where does the money get spent?<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"614\" height=\"225\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30149\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture2.png 614w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture2-300x110.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">How much is the deficit between spending and earning?<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"604\" height=\"75\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture3.png 604w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture3-300x37.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">How is the deficit financed?<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"606\" height=\"219\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30151\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture4.png 606w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture4-300x108.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Fiscal Consolidation On Track..<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"667\" height=\"312\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture5.png 667w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture5-300x140.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 667px) 100vw, 667px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Tax Receipts as a % of GDP remains stable..<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"647\" height=\"357\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30156\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture6.png 647w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture6-300x166.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Thrust on Capex Continues..<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"647\" height=\"345\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30157\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture7.png 647w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture7-300x160.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture8.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"645\" height=\"330\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture8.png 645w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture8-300x153.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">With a focus on Defence, Roads and Railways..<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture9.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"817\" height=\"285\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30159\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture9.png 817w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture9-300x105.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture9-768x268.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 817px) 100vw, 817px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">No dilution in quality of spending -&gt; Subsidies at 5 year low<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The government&#8217;s subsidy bill (Food, Fertiliser, Petroleum etc) is estimated to <strong>ease further<\/strong> to <strong>1.3% of GDP in FY25 BE from 1.5% of GDP<\/strong> estimated in FY24 RE,<strong> largely led by lower fertilizer and food subsidy bill.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture10.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"624\" height=\"316\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture10.png 624w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture10-300x152.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">What\u2019s in it for you? <\/span><br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">1. Nudge towards New Income Tax Regime&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Old income tax slabs <\/strong>remain <strong>unchanged.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Revision in the new regime income tax slabs:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture11-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1023\" height=\"241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture11-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30174\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture11-1.png 1023w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture11-1-300x71.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture11-1-768x181.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1023px) 100vw, 1023px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Standard deduction increased <\/strong>from <strong>Rs 50,000 to Rs 75,000<\/strong><strong><br><\/strong>Standard deduction is a flat deduction in your taxable income (i.e your taxable income comes down by that extent). Available to salaried individuals and pensioners.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">2. Change in Capital Gains Taxation<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Equities<\/strong><ul><li><strong>Capital Gains Tax increased for Equities&nbsp;<\/strong><ul><li><strong>Long Term Capital Gains Tax <\/strong>increased to 12.5% from 10%&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Short Term Capital Gains Tax<\/strong> increased to 20% from 15%<\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><strong>Long term capital gains tax exemption limit increased from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 1.25 lakh.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><strong>Debt Mutual Funds &#8211; <\/strong>No change in taxation<strong><br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>International FOFs, Gold Index\/ETFs &#8211; Long Term Capital Gains reduced to 12.5% <\/strong>if they are held for more than 24 months (earlier taxed at slab rates)<strong><br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Real Estate<\/strong><ul><li><strong>Indexation Benefit on property removed &#8211; <\/strong>Long Term Capital gains from the sale of real-estate will now be taxed at 12.5% without indexation benefit<strong> <\/strong>(this was earlier taxed at 20% with indexation benefit)<br><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><strong>Change in holding period<\/strong><ul><li>Earlier, there were 3 thresholds to determine long-term &#8211; 12 months, 24 months and 36 months. Now, only 12 months and 24 months.&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Threshold to claim LTCG tax:<\/strong><ul><li><strong>12 months: <\/strong>Listed financial instruments<\/li><li><strong>24 months:<\/strong> Unlisted financial instruments + All non-financial assets<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Please find below the summary of tax changes across different assets<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture12-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture12-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30178\" width=\"937\" height=\"662\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture12-1.png 937w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture12-1-300x212.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture12-1-768x543.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 937px) 100vw, 937px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">3. What gets cheap and costly&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture13.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture13.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30166\" width=\"426\" height=\"146\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture13.png 568w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Picture13-300x102.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 426px) 100vw, 426px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Other Important Announcements<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Schemes launched for employment linked incentives &#8211; <\/strong>3 new schemes have been launched for employment linked incentives that benefit first timers, job creation in manufacturing sector and support to employers.<br><\/li><li><strong>STT on F&amp;O transactions increased &#8211; <\/strong>On Futures from 0.01% to 0.02% and on Options from 0.06% to 0.1%<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">FI Equity View: Policy Continuity &#8211; No dilution in quality of spending with focus on fiscal consolidation &amp; capex<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Union Budget FY25 continues with its focus on fiscal consolidation and capex spending reiterating policy continuity. This also addresses the concerns on the possibility of populist announcements post election results. However, the increase in long term capital gains tax for equity investors came as a minor negative surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Overall, we maintain our POSITIVE outlook on Equities over a 5-7 year horizon, anticipating strong earnings growth in the coming years. We believe we are currently in the middle stages of a multi-year bull market.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our Equity view is derived based on our<strong> 3 signal framework<\/strong> driven by<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Earnings Cycle&nbsp;<\/li><li>Valuation&nbsp;<\/li><li>Sentiment<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>As per our current evaluation we are at&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MID PHASE OF EARNINGS CYCLE + EXPENSIVE VALUATIONS +&nbsp; MIXED SENTIMENTS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>MID PHASE OF EARNINGS CYCLE<br>We expect a reasonable earnings growth environment over the next 3-5 years.<\/strong> This expectation is led by Manufacturing Revival, Banks \u2013 Improving Asset Quality &amp; pickup in loan growth, Revival in Real Estate, Government\u2019s focus on Infra spending (which continues in FY25 Budget), Early signs of Corporate Capex, Structural Demand for Tech services, Structural Domestic Consumption Story, Consolidation of Market Share for Market Leaders, Strong Corporate Balance Sheets (led by Deleveraging) and Govt Reforms (Lower corporate tax, Labour Reforms, PLI) etc.<br><\/li><li><strong>EXPENSIVE VALUATIONS<br>FundsIndia Valuemeter<\/strong> based on MCAP\/GDP, Price to Earnings Ratio, Price To Book ratio and Bond Yield to Earnings Yield has reduced from 85 last month to <strong>79 <\/strong>(as on 30-June-2024) &#8211; moved to <strong>&nbsp;\u2018Expensive\u2019 Zone<br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>MIXED SENTIMENTS<br><\/strong>This is a <strong>contrarian indicator<\/strong> and we become positive when sentiments are pessimistic and vice versa <strong>&nbsp;<br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">DII flows continue to be strong on a 12-month basis. DII Flows have a structural tailwind in the form of<\/span><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Savings moving from Physical to Financial assets<\/li><li>Emerging \u2018SIP\u2019 investment culture<\/li><li>EPFO Equity investments<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>FII flows <\/strong>have remained muted for the last 2.5 years &#8211; <strong>FII Flows<\/strong> since Oct-21 at Rs. <strong>~ 14,000 Crs<\/strong>. vs <strong>DII Flows<\/strong> at Rs. <strong>~7,16,000 Crs<\/strong>. This is also reflected in the <strong>FII ownership of NSE Listed Universe<\/strong> which is currently at its <strong>10 year low<\/strong> of <strong>17.9%<\/strong> (peak ownership at ~22.4%). This indicates <strong>significant scope for higher FII inflows.<\/strong> FII flows can improve in CY24 led by 1. Peaking USD and interest rates&nbsp; and 2. Rising significance of India in global markets.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong><span style=\"color:#38761d\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Periods of weak FII flows have historically been followed by strong equity returns over the next 2-3 years (as FII flows eventually come back in the subsequent periods).<\/span><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>IPOs <\/strong>&#8211;<strong> Sentiments<\/strong> has slowly<strong> started <\/strong>to <strong>revive <\/strong>with most recent <strong>IPOs <\/strong>getting <strong>oversubscribed. But no signs of euphoria except for the SME segment.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Past 5Y Annual Return <\/strong>is at<strong> 17% <\/strong>(Nifty 50 TRI) &#8211; in line with earnings growth and nowhere close to what investors experienced in the 2003-07 bull market (45% CAGR)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Overall the sentiments <\/strong>are<strong> mixed <\/strong>and<strong> <\/strong>we see<strong> no signs of \u2018Euphoria\u2019<\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">FI Fixed Income View: Fiscal Consolidation continues + No change in Market Borrowing -&gt; Positive for Debt Markets<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Budget is positive for Debt Markets. Expect interest rates to gradually come down over the next 12-18 months<\/strong> <strong>on the back of sustained FPI flows in debt post index inclusion of Indian G-Secs, fiscal consolidation, inflation under control, expected fed rate cuts and the recent S&amp;P sovereign outlook upgrade. <\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><strong>Fiscal Consolidation continues:<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong><br><\/strong>The Fiscal Deficit for FY25 at<strong> 4.9% of GDP<\/strong> adheres to the <strong>fiscal glide path. The finance minister <\/strong>reiterated the government\u2019s commitment to bring it down to <strong>4.5% of GDP<\/strong> by <strong>FY26.<\/strong><br><br><strong>Lower Market Borrowing compared to previous year:<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong><br><\/strong>Net Market Borrowing in FY25 is lower at INR<strong> 11.1 lakh crores <\/strong>vs 12.7 lakh crores in FY24. No major change from what was announced during the interim budget.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why do we expect interest rates to come down? <\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Inflation under control: <\/strong>India\u2019s <strong>May-24 CPI inflation<\/strong> at <strong>4.7% is within RBI\u2019s tolerance band (2-6%). Core CPI<\/strong> (excl Food &amp; Energy) <strong>remains comfortable <\/strong>at<strong> 3.1%. <\/strong>RBI forecasts<strong> <\/strong>FY25 inflation to be much lower at 4.5% led by global growth slowdown and broad-based moderation in the domestic core inflation basket.<br><\/li><li><strong>Interest Rates well above expected inflation: Repo Rate<\/strong> at<strong> 6.50%<\/strong> is<strong> comfortably<\/strong> <strong>above <\/strong>the <strong>RBI\u2019s expected inflation (4.5% for FY25) <\/strong>&#8211; leaves the positive real policy rates at an elevated&nbsp; 200 bps giving enough room for RBI to reduce interest rates by ~50-75 bps over time.<strong><br><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>FED expected to cut interest rates: <\/strong><strong>US <\/strong><strong>Fed<\/strong> has already <strong>hinted at a few rate cuts this year <\/strong>led by concerns of <strong>global growth slowdown <\/strong>&amp; early signs of <strong>lower<\/strong> <strong>US inflation.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Favorable Demand-Supply Equation:&nbsp;<\/strong><ul><li><strong>Higher Demand -&gt; <\/strong>Higher FII inflows as Indian Government Bonds have been included in JP Morgan\u2019s global bond market index with expected inflow of ~USD 20-25 bn in FY25 and in Bloomberg\u2019s Emerging Market Index from FY25 + possibility of inclusion in FTSE indices.&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Lower Supply -&gt; <\/strong>Gross Market Borrowing in FY25 is lower at INR<strong> 14.1 lakh crores <\/strong>vs 15.4 lakh crores in FY24.<br><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><strong>&nbsp;S&amp;P sovereign outlook upgrade: <br><\/strong>On May 29, 2024, S&amp;P Global Ratings revised its India outlook to positive from stable, led by robust growth and rising quality of government spending .<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong>How to invest? <br><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br>3-5 year bond yields (GSec\/AAA) continue to remain attractive.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We prefer debt funds with&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>High Credit Quality (&gt;80% AAA exposure)<\/li><li>Short Duration or Target Maturity Funds (3-5 years)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Consider tactically investing in debt funds with a long duration (&gt;7 years) and high credit quality (&gt;90% AAA) if you have a higher risk appetite to benefit from the expected decline in yields over the next 12-18 months.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Highlights 1. \u2018Policy continuity\u2019 with no major populist announcement despite election result 2. Continued focus on fiscal consolidation&nbsp;&nbsp; Further reduction in fiscal deficit target to 4.9% of GDP for FY 25 (vs 5.1% announced in interim budget) \u2013 maintaining fiscal consolidation glide path to reduce fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by FY26. 3. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":30172,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,509,376],"tags":[90,891,401,187,243,900,718,517,587,289,148,521],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>India Budget FY25: Focus on 3 C\u2019s - Consolidation, Capex &amp; Capital Gains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The budget FY25 focus remains on capital expenditure that can drive a multiplier impact on economic growth and employment.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-basics\/investment-definitions\/india-budget-fy25-focus-on-3-cs-consolidation-capex-capital-gains\/30145\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"India Budget FY25: Focus on 3 C\u2019s - 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