{"id":23234,"date":"2022-03-31T14:02:23","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T08:32:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=23234"},"modified":"2022-07-25T15:32:22","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T10:02:22","slug":"should-i-exit-equities-now-and-enter-back-later-at-lower-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/should-i-exit-equities-now-and-enter-back-later-at-lower-levels\/23234","title":{"rendered":"Should I Exit Equities Now and Enter Back Later at Lower Levels?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

There is a lot going on in the world – crude oil price volatility, Fed rate hikes, global inflation concerns, surge in commodity prices, Covid outbreak in China etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we have entered week five of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simply put, the news is bad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it’s intuitive to think that the best option is to exit or postpone our equity investments<\/a> (as it feels like markets may fall) and enter back later at lower levels when the situation improves (and feels like markets will recover).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, there is a small problem with this approach\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not as easy as it sounds!<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, in the 400+ years of stock market history, no one has been able to develop a strategy or model that can consistently<\/em><\/strong> exit equities at the market peak and re-enter the bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the key question for us is\u2026
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is it difficult to exit at higher levels and enter later at lower levels? <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Simple. To get this right, you actually need two decisions<\/strong> to go your way<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. You have to sell at the right time (before a market fall)<\/li>
  2. You have to re-enter at the right time (before the market recovers)<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Even if you somehow manage to exit before a market fall, getting back into equities at lower levels is incredibly hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is because stock market recoveries do not always wait until things get better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    More often than not, the recovery begins in anticipation that the situation will improve!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This makes it extremely difficult to predict when the market recovery will start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Let us try to understand this with the help of the 2020 Coronavirus crash. Here’s how the pandemic played out in case you had forgotten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    31-Jan-20: India records its first case of Covid-19<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    11-Mar-20: WHO declares Covid-19 a pandemic<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    12-Mar-20: India records first Covid death<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    25-Mar-20: India under lockdown<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Apr-20 to May-20: Coronavirus tally races ahead\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Jun-20: Heightened tensions between India and China <\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Sep-20 to Dec-20: Cases surge in India and around the world<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Mar-21: After a few months of decline, Covid cases spike again\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Apr-21 to Jun-21: India grapples with a brutal second wave<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Jul-21: The delta variant leaves a devastating impact\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Jan-22: The third wave had lower impact thanks to vaccinations<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Now that we have reviewed the timeline, let’s see when the market bottomed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Here comes the shocker – Sensex declined 38% during the Covid induced sell-off and started to recover from 23-March-2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    To put this into perspective, the equity market began its recovery even before the country went into a full lockdown (the lockdown began on 25-Mar-2020)!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    The recovery and the subsequent rally continued even when the country was reeling under the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    During the brutal second wave (Mar-21 to Jun-21), the Sensex recorded a maximum decline of just 9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Here comes the paradox. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Even if you had every information on how the Covid pandemic would have unfolded, there is no way you could have predicted the sharp fall and recovery\/rally. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We can be certain of market bottoms only in hindsight. It is fairly easy to attach logic and a neat narrative to past market bottoms when looking back but it is almost impossible to predict them in real-time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Takeaway 1: Equity markets usually recover much ahead of the actual economic recovery and in the middle of bad news<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Okay, but what if you ignore the news and instead try to enter back only after the markets start rising?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    This again is difficult because markets rarely move in a linear manner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There can be several false upsides during a market correction. For instance, during the Covid crash, there were three instances of market recovery which in hindsight turned out to be short-lived.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    The same is true for market recoveries – multiple false downsides can happen during a recovery. Any of the four intermittent declines seen during the market recovery would have looked like the start of another huge crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Again, all these are known only in hindsight!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Takeaway 2: There can be several false recoveries during a fall and several false declines during a rally<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Further, the market recovery when it happens can be really sharp. For instance, in a matter of just 1 month from the market bottom (23-Mar-20), the Sensex gained a whopping 23%!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Takeaway 3: Recoveries can sometimes be extremely fast. A small delay in entering back and you run the risk of missing a large part of the recovery – which can prove to be costly<\/span><\/em><\/strong>.<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Would the experts be able to predict and help us time the markets? <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Let us take a look at some of the market predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    These are knowledgeable experts with access to great talent, sophisticated softwares, extensive data and tools to analyze market movements. All of them had a logical rationale to back their predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, their predictions could not have been more wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is yet another humble reminder that predicting and timing the markets is almost close to impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So, when you hear market experts making doomsday predictions, the best thing is to follow legendary fund manager Peter Lynch\u2019s advice:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cWhen it comes to predicting the market, the important skill here is not listening. <\/p>

    It\u2019s snoring<\/em><\/strong>!\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Takeaway 4: Even the experts can\u2019t predict!<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n
    <\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n

    Summing it up<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Exiting equities and re-entering at the market bottom is easier said than done as <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    • Equity markets usually recover much ahead of the actual economic recovery and in the middle of bad news<\/li>
    • There can be several false recoveries during a fall and several false declines during a rally<\/li>
    • Recoveries can sometimes be extremely fast. A small delay in entering back and you run the risk of missing a large part of the recovery – which can prove to be costly.<\/li>
    • Even the Experts can\u2019t predict!<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      The better approach for volatile markets would be to keep it simple<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      • Stay invested as per your original asset allocation – rebalance if equity allocation deviates more than +\/-5%<\/li>
      • Continue your SIPs\/STPs to take advantage of lower prices<\/li>
      • Activate your Crisis Plan – if market corrects more than 20%<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        There is a lot going on in the world – crude oil price volatility, Fed rate hikes, global inflation concerns, surge in commodity prices, Covid outbreak in China etc. And we have entered week five of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Simply put, the news is bad. Now it’s intuitive to think that the best option is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":23285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,509,376],"tags":[624,243,201,108,361,517,587,289,148,722,721,484,315],"yoast_head":"\nShould I Exit Equities Now and Enter Back Later at Lower Levels?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It's intuitive to think that this is the best option during volatile markets. 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