{"id":19758,"date":"2020-11-26T16:02:12","date_gmt":"2020-11-26T10:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=19758"},"modified":"2020-11-27T12:46:22","modified_gmt":"2020-11-27T07:16:22","slug":"sliding-doors-covid-19-and-the-equity-sip-investor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/sliding-doors-covid-19-and-the-equity-sip-investor\/19758","title":{"rendered":"Sliding Doors, Covid-19 and the Equity SIP Investor"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><b>Have you seen the movie Sliding Doors?<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sliding Doors is a <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1998 romantic-comedy-drama film with a super cool plot.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/unnamed.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19759\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/unnamed.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"341\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/unnamed.png 341w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/unnamed-200x300.png 200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 341px) 100vw, 341px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can check out the trailer <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Da-Mizk86AE\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to get a sense of the movie \ud83d\ude42<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For those yet to see the movie, here is a quick glimpse into the story\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When Helen (Gwyneth Paltrow), a London ad executive, is fired from her job and rushes out to catch a train, two scenarios take place. In one, she gets on the train and comes home to find her boyfriend, Gerry (John Lynch), in bed with another woman. In the second, she misses the train and arrives after the woman has left.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How Helen\u2019s life unfolds in these two different versions forms the rest of the story.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now you are obviously wondering &#8211; \u201cWhat does this have to do with investing?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The brilliance of the movie Sliding Doors is the presentation of two \u2018what if\u2026\u2019 scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><b>\u201cWhat if\u201d and the Equity Markets&#8230;<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taking inspiration, we decided to do a comparison of two scenarios for equity markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Scenario 1: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What if Covid-19 had not impacted us this year and the Indian equity market had a smooth journey till today\u2019s levels &#8211; without the scary ~38% correction which we saw in Mar-20?<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP001.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19763\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP001.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"904\" height=\"434\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP001.png 904w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP001-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP001-768x369.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 904px) 100vw, 904px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><b>Scenario 2: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The actual scenario where Covid-19 impacted the world and the Indian markets had crashed in Mar-2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP002.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19764\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP002.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"902\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP002.png 902w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP002-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP002-768x378.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 902px) 100vw, 902px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now here is a simple question for you&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let us take the case of an Equity SIP investor who has been investing Rs 10,000 each and every month in the Nifty 50 for the last 3 years. In which of the above scenarios would the SIP perform better?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Is it the one where there was a ~38% fall?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Or the one where there was hypothetically no fall and the markets smoothly climbed to today\u2019s levels from January-2020 highs?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Take a guess.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Going by our intuition, looks like it should be the one where there was no market crash right?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hang on. Let us check the actual data\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP003.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19765\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP003.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP003.png 681w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP003-300x78.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><b>WOW! CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The SIP returns for the actual scenario with the ~38% crash is a whopping 3.3% higher than the SIP returns for our hypothetical scenario without the crash!<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><b>What\u2019s happening? Someone care to explain?<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The logic is simple.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A SIP simply buys mutual fund units each and every month for the same amount. So if equity prices fall you buy more mutual fund units and vice versa.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now this implies as long as markets recover and move up over the long run, a SIP will do extremely well if there are more declines.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But why?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because you end up accumulating a lot more units at a lower cost!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is exactly what happens in the above case.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 40% crash allows you to accumulate a lot more equity fund units at a much lower price compared to a scenario where there is no crash.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><b>Wow! If an Equity SIP does so well to take advantage of market falls, why is it so tough to hold on to an Equity SIP?<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As with all things in life, higher long term SIP returns means you need to take up short term pain and uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let us see how the SIP returns would have looked under the two scenarios for an investor every month from Jan-20 till Nov-20.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP004.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19766\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP004.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"923\" height=\"464\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP004.png 923w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP004-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/CovidSIP004-768x386.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 923px) 100vw, 923px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ah! There you go.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While a market fall benefits SIP investors post the recovery, in the middle of a crash, the returns are super dismal and emotionally taxing.\u00a0 Add to it the stress and uncertainty of not knowing how long the fall will continue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is exactly when most of us give up on our faith in equities (read as Indian entrepreneurship) and expect the markets never to recover back again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">History has shown us time and again that markets despite all the several crises in the past have always recovered and moved up in the long run.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So while it is logical from our side to ask you to continue your Equity SIPs in the middle of a market crash (see our earlier articles <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/keep-siping\/18153\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/my-sip-returns-are-dismal-what-should-i-do\/18231\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">), if you do not believe in equities for the long term and are not convinced that the markets will recover, you will most likely stop your SIPs and end up having a bad overall experience.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As seen above, we have shown you how SIPs benefit from volatility (read as declines and recovery). Frankly speaking, we think the problem has never been about not knowing that SIPs benefit out of volatility. But the real challenge, in sticking to a simple but powerful strategy like an Equity SIP finally boils down to your \u201cFaith\u201d in equities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Just like how it was tested in March-2020 it will be tested again for sure, several times over the next decade.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So before you start your SIP &#8211; the key question to ask is \u201cDo you have faith in equities?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An honest answer to this question will determine the success of your SIP investing!<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><b>Summing it up<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As an Equity SIP investor, if you have a long time frame (say more than 7 to 10 years), you need to pray for frequent market declines. As weird as it sounds, the more the intermittent temporary crashes, the higher is your Equity SIP returns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While it is obviously painful to see extremely low or sometimes even negative returns for your SIP investments in the middle of a fall, this is exactly where your SIP is working its hardest and accumulating higher mutual fund units at lower prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So whatever happens, do not stop your equity SIPs during a market fall.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And for this to happen &#8211; it all finally boils down to \u201cFaith\u201d in Equities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do you have yours?<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Have you seen the movie Sliding Doors? Sliding Doors is a 1998 romantic-comedy-drama film with a super cool plot. You can check out the trailer here to get a sense of the movie \ud83d\ude42 For those yet to see the movie, here is a quick glimpse into the story\u2026 When Helen (Gwyneth Paltrow), a London [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":19795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,509],"tags":[515,200,201,517,587,289,148,518,49,151,263],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sliding Doors, Covid-19 and the Equity SIP Investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ever wondered what would have happened to your SIP investments if there had been no market crash due to Covid? Yes? 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Yes? 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