{"id":17456,"date":"2020-01-10T11:30:14","date_gmt":"2020-01-10T06:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=17456"},"modified":"2020-01-14T12:35:45","modified_gmt":"2020-01-14T07:05:45","slug":"us-iran-tension","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/us-iran-tension\/17456","title":{"rendered":"US, Iran and your Portfolio. What happens next?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unless you are living under a rock, by now you should know about the US-Iran tension.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Here is a quick summary:<\/b><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The United States killed a top Iranian military commander <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">general Qasem Soleimani in an airstrike <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">in Iraq on Friday (03-Jan-2020).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iran declared it would no longer abide by any of the restrictions imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal &#8211; including limitations on its enrichment of Uranium.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the early hours of Wednesday (08-Jan-2020), Iran launched missile attacks on US-led forces in Iraq in retaliation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After Iran\u2019s attack, Mr Trump\u2019s speech indicated a softened stance of no further military confrontation with Iran and said he was ready to embrace peace.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While no one knows exactly how future events can unfold, at the current juncture, US\u00a0and\u00a0Iran\u00a0appear to have stepped away from the brink of a full-blown conflict.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The last few days have seen a surge in gold and crude oil prices internationally and heightened volatility in equities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Nifty on 06-Jan-2020 was down by 1.9% on concerns of a possible increase in oil price.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On 07-Jan-2020, Nifty was up by 0.5%. On 08-Jan-2020, Nifty was down by 0.2%. On 09-Jan-2020, Nifty was up by 1.6%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The below post, more than our outlook on the event, is a peek into our thought process on how to approach such &#8220;crisis-like&#8221; events which is a perennial part of equity markets.<\/p>\n<h4><b>Should you be worried about the volatility?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Nifty on 06-Jan-2020 was down by 1.9%. First, let us put this in perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17457\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-1.png\" alt=\"US-Iran tension\" width=\"621\" height=\"245\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-1.png 621w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-1-300x118.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since 1991, there have been ~540 days out of 7060 days where markets have fallen much more than 2% &#8211; i.e around 8% of the time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other words,<\/span><b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A daily fall of more than 2% has happened once every 13 days since 1991!<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sounds pretty common right!<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>But how to make this boring statistic scary?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Enter media headlines&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17458\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-2.png\" alt=\"US-Iran tension\" width=\"615\" height=\"197\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-2.png 615w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-2-300x96.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 615px) 100vw, 615px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There you go. Now that looks a lot scarier.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But thankfully, now that you have had a peek at stock market history, you know this volatility is business as usual for equity markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Hey, but what about the US-Iran tension that the market is worried about?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Again let us put these &#8220;market scary&#8221; events in perspective. Do these events impact an investor in the long-run?<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Iran-new.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17489\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Iran-new.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1476\" height=\"828\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Iran-new.png 1476w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Iran-new-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Iran-new-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Iran-new-1024x574.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1476px) 100vw, 1476px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The above chart captures some of the major events that happened in the last 15 years (Jan-05 to Dec-19). Unnerved by all this, an investor who simply decided to stay invested in the markets, ended up getting a 606% return or 13.9% CAGR (Nifty 50 TRI)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The simple realization is that almost every year we have a few events about which the market is worried. We are never &#8220;crisis-less&#8221;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some lead to temporary corrections, many don&#8217;t. The keyword here is <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2018temporary\u2019.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The same story of equities providing decent long term returns despite the scary headlines has held true for the last 30 years!<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17460\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"631\" height=\"336\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-4.png 631w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-4-300x160.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 631px) 100vw, 631px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So here is the simple essence &#8211; <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Market corrections do not equal financial loss\u2026unless you sell!<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>All that is fine. But what if this turns out into a full-fledged war? What will be the impact on markets?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the previous periods of similar geopolitical events suggest that the impact on markets usually tend to be short-lived, the honest answer is &#8220;We don&#8217;t know how the event will unfold. Most importantly, even if we somehow knew that we still wouldn\u2019t be able to predict how the markets will respond to that&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cI can\u2019t recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes\u2019 annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you\u2019d think somebody would have made billions by doing it.\u201d \u2013 Peter Lynch<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In our view, while equity markets track underlying earnings growth over the long run, consistently predicting market movements in the short term is next to impossible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let us explain why we don\u2019t attempt to predict such events.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are essentially two challenges<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>1. Geopolitical events by their nature are unpredictable<\/b><b><br \/>\n<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Think about it. Honestly, do you think anyone out there knows what Mr Trump plans next?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>2. Market&#8217;s reaction to war and geopolitical crises can be counter-intuitive<\/b><b><br \/>\n<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It&#8217;s difficult to predict how investors will react to such events as so much of the market&#8217;s reaction to these events is context-dependent. Sometimes the market response to events can be just the opposite of what you think.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-5-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17470\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-5-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"421\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-5-1.png 640w, https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/iran-5-1-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2020\/01\/03\/iran-us-conflict-stock-market-oil-prices\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/fortune.com\/2020\/01\/03\/iran-us-conflict-stock-market-oil-prices\/<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>We cannot predict but we can prepare\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While it is extremely disappointing to hear the truth that we can&#8217;t predict the short term movements of equity markets, the paradox is that the more you realize you don&#8217;t have control over the market in the short run, the more you actually gain control.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Come again. How in the world does that work?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Simple. Because you now suddenly start thinking of a strategy to &#8220;<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">prepare&#8221;<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0for a wider range of outcomes rather than for a single outcome that you are trying to predict.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Fair enough.<\/b> <b>So how do we prepare?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First the basics,<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Make sure the money for goals needed in the next 5 years is not into equities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Make sure you have an emergency fund (preferably via safe liquid funds) to cover for at least 6 months of your expenses<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Is your current asset allocation i.e your split across various asset classes such as equity, debt, gold etc. in line with your risk appetite (if you are panicking right now, then most likely it\u2019s not)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now to the actual plan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the whole US-Iran tension subsides, then it is life as usual. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Simply, leave your portfolios untouched to compound in peace.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>What if markets start to fall due to some unexpected turn of events? Should you sell now and enter later?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is the most dangerous time as intuitively your natural response is to expect markets to fall further as things usually look like they will get worse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now while you might resist the temptation to act (assuming you are sold on the you-can\u2019t-predict -but-only-prepare-philosophy), however, if the market continues to fall further then suddenly &#8220;regret&#8221; kicks in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While there is overwhelming evidence that no one can predict, you realise that actually, you <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">did<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> predict the fall.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If only you had listened to your own intuition and sold out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Any further fall and you are convinced &#8211; to hell with this &#8220;can&#8217;t predict&#8221; crap.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And you utter the most dangerous words,<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>&#8220;Let me move out and enter later&#8221;<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The remaining part of the story is common folklore on why investors don&#8217;t make returns in equities, blah blah&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The biggest issue in getting out is to again get back into equity markets. Even if you are right the first time, to get back in, you need to be right twice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And while we imagine the equity market trajectory to be a simple straight line, there are too many false upsides during a fall. This lulls you into complacency (read as &#8220;I have seen this before&#8221;), and when the actual recovery happens, you think it\u2019s yet another false rally and by the time you realise this one is the real one, it is usually too late.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>So how do we handle this?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When it comes to decision-making, less is more and you need to reduce the number of decisions to be taken. Most importantly you need to have a clear pre-decided plan on WHEN and WHAT decision to take.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A simple plan might look like:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the market falls by 10% then I will\u2026<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the market falls by 20% then I will\u2026<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the market falls by 30% then I will\u2026<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the market falls by 40% then I will\u2026<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the market falls by 50% then I will\u2026<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here is what a sample plan might look like..(this can be customized based on your risk profile, time frame and plan)<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10% fall &#8211; No action<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">20% fall &#8211; Move 20% from debt portion (intended for tactical allocation) to equities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">30% fall &#8211; Move next 30% from debt portion (intended for tactical allocation) to equities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">40% fall &#8211; Move next 40% from debt portion (intended for tactical allocation) to equities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">50% fall \u2013 Move next 10% from debt portion (intended for tactical allocation) to equities<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This will ensure that you are better prepared to take advantage of the market if it falls further.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Now is this easy to pull off?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To be honest, most of us will end up being more fearful than we expect when our portfolio is falling.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Worst case if you fail to stick to the plan, you can always go back and find out what really happened. And maybe all along, you had overestimated your ability to handle a falling market. So the next time, this can serve as a good reminder to go for a more conservative portfolio.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While we have no clue how the US-Iran tension will pan out, even if there is a fall, as long as you have your plan ready and the discipline to execute it, you can convert this into an opportunity rather than a crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Remember&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;All past corrections look like opportunities while the current ones always look like a crisis&#8221;<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do you have your plan ready, yet?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>This article was originally published on MoneyControl. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneycontrol.com\/news\/business\/markets\/us-iran-geopolitical-tensions-how-to-prepare-your-portfolio-for-the-worst-4810231.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a> to read it.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Unless you are living under a rock, by now you should know about the US-Iran tension. Here is a quick summary: The United States killed a top Iranian military commander general Qasem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq on Friday (03-Jan-2020). Iran declared it would no longer abide by any of the restrictions imposed by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":17467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,509,532],"tags":[517,587,289,516,67,518,286],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US, Iran and your Portfolio. What happens next?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Unless you are living under a rock, by now you should know about the US-Iran tension. 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